Black Market Tobacco Gold Rush ~ How a Greedy Govt. Turned Citizens into Criminals
Senator Malcolm Roberts asks ~ How to solve illegal black market tobacco problems ~ after governments raised Excise from 2010 - 2026 by 490%?
This is straight-up a problem created by greedy governments fighting a losing battle to tax the population because of exponentially growing Debt.
« If you want to turn a public behaviour into a permanent cash-cow that props up the Budget - you tax it carefully.
Somehow, uniparty greed has found a way to implement a ‘worst of both worlds’ policy surrounding tobacco and nicotine products which has turned smoking into a criminal underworld gold mine.»
Here is a graph of Australia’s Excise Income from Tobacco & related products.
Source: claude ai ~ asking the excise question
« The chart shows the dramatic arc of Australia’s tobacco excise and customs revenue over 13 years. A few key things to note:
Revenue peaked at $16.3 billion in 2019–20, before falling sharply to $14.2 billion in 2021 and $12.6 billion in 2022. The 2024–25 expected haul is around $7.4 billion. X
The large spike in 2019–20 is partly a one-off accounting effect — it reflects the shifting of the taxing point for imported tobacco to the border from 1 July 2019, which meant all stock held in warehouses became immediately liable for duty. Substack
From 2020 to 2025, excise rates actually increased by just under 50%, yet revenue fell by $8.5 billion — a classic Laffer Curve effect. Much of the decrease is attributed to substitution into illicit tobacco and vaping, rather than people quitting. The ATO estimates that over 20% of tobacco sold in 2023–24 was illicit, up from 8% in 2018–19. Wikipedia »
Illegal Tobacco ~ Caused by Govt Debt?
Irrespective of input from govt sources and mainstream media, the correlation between falling Excise Income, rising Cost-of-Living Crises, reigning-in NDIS cost blowouts, rising geopolitical destablisation & gas and oil wars, plus a 177% increase in Gross Budget Debt equates to a Category 5 Economic Cyclone.
Source: claude ai ~ asking the gross debt questions
« The chart shows both gross and net Commonwealth government debt over the decade. A few key observations:
Gross debt climbed steadily from $369 billion in 2014–15 to $421 billion in 2015–16, then continued rising through $501 billion in 2016–17 and $542 billion in 2018–19. Substack
The shaded band marks the COVID-19 period, which caused a dramatic acceleration. The final gross debt outcome for 2021–22 was $895.3 billion, up from $684 billion just two years earlier as emergency spending surged. Substack
The 2025–26 Budget Papers show gross debt at $1,022 billion (35.5% of GDP) and net debt at $620 billion (21.5% of GDP) for 2024–25. Twitter
The gap between gross and net debt represents financial assets held by the government (cash, deposits, and investments) that partly offset the borrowings. National gross debt is expected to continue increasing, forecast to reach 57.5% of GDP by 2028–29, eclipsing the COVID-19 high of 56.3% of GDP in 2020–21. Substack »
How do you Survive a Cat 5 Economic Cyclone?
Here are the Money Shots!
Source: australian debt clock
Total Debt Load is frightening ~ But Look at the Crippling Interest!
That is $90+ Billion ~ Just in Interest ~ and rising!
Even a Welder’s Dog can see it ~ Our rulers are loading Aussies with Perpetual Debt!
Avoiding National Poverty ~ Aussie Resource Bonanza!
That’s correct ~ Australian Energy & Fuel resources generates $ TRILLIONS!
Mainstream media keep telling us ~ « we should be so lucky!»
Source: oxfam freeloaders report for australia ~ 2026
Surviving a Cat 5 Economic Cyclone ~ Solutions!
Source: osprey on overwatch ~ animal farm 2.0… etc
Source: osprey on overwatch ~ animal farm ~ four legs good, royalties bad…. etc
The Strait of Hormuz Crisis ~ Could it Go Supernova?
Here is top Australian Economist, Professor Steve Keen with his dire warning about a potential global famine & economic shockwaves that could reverberate around the planet.
Source: Prof Steve Keen ~ the next stock market crash
Take Home Messages
We are in Dire Straits ~ Economy + Energy War + NDIS + Austerity.
The Debt & Interest Black Hole is growing exponentially.
We MUST recalibrate our Resource Royalties ~ or Perish.
Other nations benefit from their Resource Bonanzas ~ we can too.